Effects of school-level and area-level socio-economic factors on elementary school student COVID-19 infections: a population-based observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the variability of the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections among elementary school students attributable to individual schools and/or their geographic areas, and to ascertain whether socio-economic characteristics of school populations and/or geographic areas may be predictive of this variability. DESIGN: Population-based observational study of SARS-CoV-2 infections among elementary school children. SETTING: 3994 publicly funded elementary schools in 491 forward sortation areas (designated geographic unit based on first three characters of Canadian postal code), Ontario, Canada, September 2020 to April 2021. PARTICIPANTS: All students attending publicly funded elementary schools with a positive molecular test for SARS-CoV-2 reported by the Ontario Ministry of Education. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cumulative incidence of laboratory-confirmed elementary school student SARS-CoV-2 infections in Ontario, 2020-21 school year. RESULTS: A multilevel modelling approach was used to estimate the effects of socio-economic factors at the school and area levels on the cumulative incidence of elementary school student SARS-CoV-2 infections. At the school level (level 1), the proportion of the student body from low-income households was positively associated with cumulative incidence (ß=0.083, p<0.001). At the area level (level 2), all dimensions of marginalisation were significantly related to cumulative incidence. Ethnic concentration (ß=0.454, p<0.001), residential instability (ß=0.356, p<0.001) and material deprivation (ß=0.212, p<0.001) were positively related, while dependency (ß=-0.204, p<0.001) was negatively related. Area-related marginalisation variables explained 57.6% of area variability in cumulative incidence. School-related variables explained 1.2% of school variability in cumulative incidence. CONCLUSIONS: The socio-economic characteristics of the geographic area of schools were more important in accounting for the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 elementary school student infections than individual school characteristics. Schools in marginalised areas should be prioritised for infection prevention measures and education continuity and recovery plans.

Psychosocial Risk in COVID Context: The Impact of Economic Factors and Labour Protection Policy (ERTEs) in Spain.

The pandemic and the current situation have caused working poverty and therefore social risk, which implies a deterioration in well-being, affecting mental health and anxiety. In this context, the employment situation tends to be regarded ignoring previous social differences, economic and mental components, which should be considered when establishing priorities to program a global action of various synergistic elements. The study involved 4686 people (3500 women and 1186 men). They all completed a questionnaire that evaluated their anxiety, employment situation, income, changes of working status, and fears of becoming infected at the workplace. The results show the need to take into account the social determinants of mental health in vulnerable groups due to socioeconomic factors, job changes, contractual changes, age, or gender, considering the need to generate strategies to manage mental health and deal with it at a structural level, therefore displacing individual focus policies and interventions. An example of these policies are ERTEs (record of temporary employment regulation), constituting a perceived measure of protection and acting as an effective buffer against the economic crisis, thus reducing anxiety.

The Economic Factors Impacting the Viability of Pediatric Ophthalmology.

PURPOSE: To create a survey that assesses the economic factors impacting the viability of pediatric ophthalmology between January 2021 and July 2022. METHODS: A 12-question survey was distributed to United States-based pediatric ophthalmologists on the American Association for Pediatric Ophthalmology and Strabismus discussion board and various social media fora. Demographic, economic, and workforce pattern data were collected and analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 243 pediatric ophthalmologists completed the survey. One hundred seven (44.0%) respondents reported a surgical revenue decrease between 10% and 25%, 117 (48.1%) a clinical revenue decrease of less than 10%, 111 (45.6%) an overall income decrease of less than 10%, and 127 (52.2%) an overhead cost increase between 10% and 25%. Seventy-two (29.6%) respondents reported subsidizing income with pursuits outside of pediatric ophthalmology, 27 (11.1%) stopped operating due to reimbursement cuts, 75 (30.8%) limited the number of Medicaid or other public funded patients, 16 (6.5%) retired in the past 3 years, and 92 (37.8%) would not recommend a resident pursue a pediatric ophthalmology fellowship. CONCLUSIONS: There is a potential upheaval in the field of pediatric ophthalmology marked by increasing levels of disillusionment among current providers, a progressive decline in the number of trainees pursuing fellowship programs, and workforce issues suggestive of diversification of practice patterns outside of pediatric ophthalmology. The current economic crisis, in conjunction with these complex workforce issues, is and will continue to create a shortage of practicing pediatric ophthalmologists, seriously limiting access to pediatric and adult strabismus eye care. [J Pediatr Ophthalmol Strabismus. 2022;59(6):362-368.].

Social and Economic Factors Related to Healthcare Delay Among Low-Income Families During COVID-19: Results from the ACCESS Observational Study.

Delayed medical care is a negative consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic for families with young children. Our study used data from the Accessing California Communities' Experiences with Safety net Supports (ACCESS) survey, a cross-sectional study that assessed experiences with safety-net programs among working families with low incomes (n=491). From August 2020 to May 2021, we conducted interviewer-administered surveys of low-income families with young children (ages zero to eight) in California and asked questions about whether participants had delayed medical care for their children or themselves. We found that delaying care for children was associated with lack of childcare and with the child having pre-existing conditions. Delaying parental medical care was associated with lack of childcare, experiences of racism, government mistrust, and perceptions of welfare stigma. These results suggest that health care access may be improved through a focus on supporting childcare systems and addressing structural racism.

Burnout and Quality of Work Life among Municipal Workers: Do Motivating and Economic Factors Play a Mediating Role?

This study analyzes the relationship between burnout and quality of work life among municipal workers subjected to higher levels of stress and emotional exhaustion, impacting their occupational health in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. With a sample of 459 municipal workers, the relationship between burnout and quality of work life is tested by considering the isolated mediating effect of the feeling of contributing to productivity and the combined effects of two mediators representing the feeling of contributing to productivity and receiving an appropriate salary. The main findings include a negative association between the three dimensions of burnout: emotional exhaustion, feelings of cynicism, and a sense of being less effective, and the mediators: contribution to productivity and appropriate salary. Also detected was an important mediating role associated with the effects of not feeling contributive at work, as well as not being well paid, on the relation between the burnout syndrome dimension of low effectiveness and quality of work life. For future action by public authorities and public managers, the need is highlighted to create innovative human resource management frameworks and flexible work organization, with remuneration plans based on productivity goals and aimed at an improved balance between personal life and work.

Estimation of Ebola's spillover infection exposure in Sierra Leone based on sociodemographic and economic factors.

Zoonotic diseases spread through pathogens-infected animal carriers. In the case of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), evidence supports that the main carriers are fruit bats and non-human primates. Further, EVD spread is a multi-factorial problem that depends on sociodemographic and economic (SDE) factors. Here we inquire into this phenomenon and aim at determining, quantitatively, the Ebola spillover infection exposure map and try to link it to SDE factors. To that end, we designed and conducted a survey in Sierra Leone and implement a pipeline to analyze data using regression and machine learning techniques. Our methodology is able (1) to identify the features that are best predictors of an individual's tendency to partake in behaviors that can expose them to Ebola infection, (2) to develop a predictive model about the spillover risk statistics that can be calibrated for different regions and future times, and (3) to compute a spillover exposure map for Sierra Leone. Our results and conclusions are relevant to identify the regions in Sierra Leone at risk of EVD spillover and, consequently, to design and implement policies for an effective deployment of resources (e.g., drug supplies) and other preventative measures (e.g., educational campaigns).

[Spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in Cologne and associated socio-economic factors in the period from February 2020 to October 2021]. / Die zeitlich-räumliche Verteilung von COVID-19 in Köln und beeinflussende soziale Faktoren im Zeitraum Februar 2020 bis Oktober 2021.

BACKGROUND AND GOALS: Even in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, which took a very different course globally, there were indications that socio-economic factors influenced the dynamics of disease spread, which from the second phase (September 2020) onwards particularly affected people with a lower socio-economic status. Such effects can also be seen within a large city. The present study visualizes and examines the spatio-temporal spread of all COVID-19 cases reported in Cologne, Germany (February 2020-October 2021) at district level and their possible association with socio-economic factors. METHODS: Pseudonymized data of all COVID-19 cases reported in Cologne were geo-coded and their distribution was mapped in an age-standardized way at district level over four periods and compared with the distribution of social factors. The possible influence of the selected factors was also examined in a regression analysis in a model with case growth rates. RESULTS: The small-scale local infection process changed during the pandemic. Neighborhoods with weaker socio-economic indices showed higher incidence over a large part of the pandemic course, with a positive correlation between poverty risk factors and age-standardized incidence. The strength of this correlation changed over time. CONCLUSION: The timely observation and analysis of the local spread dynamics reveals the positive correlation of disadvantaging socio-economic factors on the incidence rate of COVID-19 at the level of a large city and can help steer local containment measures in a targeted manner.

COVID-19 Post-Exposure Evaluation (COPE) Study: Assessing the Role of Socio-Economic Factors in Household SARS-CoV-2 Transmission within Campania Region (Southern Italy).

Campania is the sixth poorest region of Italy, and it is the region with the highest income inequality. The secondary attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 among households are found to be substantially heterogeneous among published studies and are influenced by socio-economic factors. We conducted a retrospective study to describe the role of socio-economic factors in the household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among patients living in Campania Region and referring to "Federico II" Hospital. We interviewed 413 subjects followed-up for COVID-19 between the 8 March 2020 and the 24 May 2021 with the aim to collect demographic, clinical, economic, and social data regarding their household and the index cases. The variables associated with SARS-CoV-2 attack rate higher than 50% among households were higher age (p = 0.023) and higher Charlson Comorbidity Index of the index case (p = 0.023) and, for household characteristics, higher number of families per house (p = 0.02), location of the houses in Naples' suburbs (Chi2 = 5.3, p = 0.02) and in Caserta City area (Chi2 = 4, p = 0.04), and renting the house compared to owning it (Chi2 = 5.83, p = 0.01). This study confirms the finding described by other authors that household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is correlated with the income inequality of the analyzed geographical area as well as with the indicators of health and economic wealth of the families, and this correlation also applies to the Campania Region.

Social and Economic Factors Associated With Subthreshold and Major Depressive Episode in University Students During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Depression is one of the most frequent mental health disorders in college students and variations according to social and economic factors have been reported, however, whether social and economic variations also exist in subthreshold depression is still unknown, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of subthreshold depressive episode (SDE) and major depressive episode (MDE) and to examine the association between social and economic factors with SDE and MDE in undergraduate students during the COVID-19 pandemic. The participants were 1,577 college students from a university in the south of Chile (64.6% females, 22 years old on average). The participants took an online survey in November 2020 which collected information about social and economic variables, depressive symptoms, and perceived social support. Bivariate and multinomial logistic regression analysis were used. The results showed a high prevalence of SDE (14.3%) and MDE (32.3%) in the sample. Belonging to a social group and perceiving positive social support were the only variables examined that were associated with SDE. Instead, female sex, poorer quintiles, living with other relatives but not parents, economic difficulties due to the pandemic, being a parent, and perceiving positive social support were associated with MDE. Subthreshold and threshold depressive symptoms are frequent in college students, and associations with social and economic factors differ according to the level of such symptoms. These results should be considered in the development of tailored preventive and early interventions for depression in college students.

Associations of COVID-19-Related Health, Healthcare and Economic Factors With Prenatal Depression and Anxiety.

Objective: This study evaluated whether COVID-19 pandemic-related health, healthcare and economic factors during pregnancy are associated with prenatal depression and anxiety. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study of 6,628 pregnant members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California who responded to a survey between 22 June and 30 September 2020. The survey included questions about depression (Patient Health Questionnaire) and anxiety (Generalized Anxiety Disorder) symptoms and COVID-19-related health and healthcare (e.g., had COVID-19) and economic (e.g., food insecurity) factors. Results: Over one third of individuals reported depression (25% mild, 8% moderate, 3% severe) or anxiety (22% mild, 8% moderate, 5% severe) symptoms. In multivariable analyses, COVID-19 during pregnancy, employment with greater risk of COVID-19, distress over changes in prenatal care, job loss, changes in childcare and food insecurity were associated with greater odds of prenatal depression or anxiety. Conclusion: Findings suggest the COVID-19 pandemic may have severe mental health repercussions for pregnant individuals. Support services for pregnant individuals experiencing these COVID-19-related factors and monitoring of those who had moderate/severe prenatal depression and anxiety symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic is warranted.

Geographically weighted regression model for physical, social, and economic factors affecting the COVID-19 pandemic spreading.

This study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of the epidemic spread and the role of the physical, social, and economic characteristics in this spreading. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was built within a GIS environment using infection data monitored by the Iraqi Ministry of Health records for 10 months from March to December 2020. The factors adopted in this model are the size of urban interaction areas and human gatherings, movement level and accessibility, and the volume of public services and facilities that attract people. The results show that it would be possible to deal with each administrative unit in proportion to its circumstances in light of the factors that appear in it. So, there will not be a single treatment for all areas with different urban characteristics, which sometimes helps not to stop social and economic life due to the imposition of a comprehensive ban on movement and activities. Therefore, there will be other supportive policies other than the ban, depending on the urban indicators for each region, such as reducing external movement from it or relying on preventing public activities only.

Area-level social and economic factors and the local incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Victoria during 2020.

OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between area-level socio-economic factors and the incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in Victoria during 2020. DESIGN, SETTING: Population-level ecological study of the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Victoria, by postcode, 1 March - 13 August 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Relationships between the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections by postcode (Department of Health and Human Services data published on The Age website), and demographic, education level, ethnic background, economic and employment-related factors, housing-related factors, and social disadvantage (Australian Bureau of Statistics data for 2014-19), expressed as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). RESULTS: During the study period, 15 482 SARS-CoV-2 infections with associated postcodes were recorded in Victoria. Incidence was higher for metropolitan than regional postcodes (418.3 v 62 infections per 100 000 population; IRR, 6.2; 95% CI, 4.6-8.2). In regional postcodes, incidence rose with mean household size (per person: IRR, 7.30; 95% CI, 4.37-12.2), unemployment proportion (per percentage point: IRR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.33-1.69), and proportions for whom rent (IRR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.07-1.22) or mortgage repayments (IRR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.15-1.28) exceeded 30% of household income. In metropolitan areas, incidence increased with unemployment proportion (IRR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.05-1.23) and proportion without paid leave (IRR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.02-1.45). Incidence also increased with proportion speaking languages other than English at home (regional: IRR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.06-1.11; metropolitan: IRR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.002-1.02) and with Indigenous Australian proportion (metropolitan only: IRR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.10-2.73). CONCLUSIONS: Socio-economic factors may have contributed to the non-homogeneous incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections across Victoria during 2020.

Spatial analysis of socio-economic factors and their relationship with the cases of COVID-19 in Pernambuco, Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the spatial distribution of rates of COVID-19 cases and its association with socio-economic conditions in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. METHODS: Autocorrelation (Moran index) and spatial association (Geographically weighted regression) models were used to explain the interrelationships between municipalities and the possible effects of socio-economic factors on rates. RESULTS: Two isolated clusters were revealed in the inner part of the state in sparsely inhabited municipalities. The spatial model (Geographically Weighted Regression) was able to explain 50% of the variations in COVID-19 cases. The variables proportion of people with low income, percentage of rented homes, percentage of families in social programs, Gini index and running water had the greatest explanatory power for the increase in infection by COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide important information on socio-economic factors related to the spread of COVID-19 and can serve as a basis for decision-making in similar circumstances.

The economic toll of COVID-19: A cohort study of prevalence and economic factors associated with postpartum depression in Kenya.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study is to examine the risk of postpartum depression (PPD) among women who delivered during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to women who delivered before the COVID-19 pandemic and how economic challenges are associated with PPD. METHODS: Data were collected from 2332 women. This includes 1197 women from healthcare facilities in 2019 who were followed up at 2-4 and 10 weeks postpartum. Additionally, we recruited 1135 women who delivered from March 16, 2020 onward when COVID-19 restrictions were mandated in Kenya in the same catchment areas as the original sample to compare PPD rates. RESULTS: Adjusting for covariates, women who delivered during COVID-19 had 2.5 times higher odds of screening positive for PPD than women who delivered before COVID-19 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.92-3.15). Women who reported household food insecurity, required to pay a fee to cover the cost of PPE during labor and delivery and/or postnatal visit(s), and those who reported COVID-19 employment-related impacts had a higher likelihood of screening for PPD compared to those who did not report these experiences. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly increased the economic vulnerability of women, resulting in increases in PPD.

The COVID-19 alcohol paradox: British household purchases during 2020 compared with 2015-2019.

British supermarket-panel data suggest no increases in overall sales and purchases of alcohol following COVID-19 lockdowns, yet survey and mortality data suggest otherwise. This paper attempts to unravel the paradox. Based on purchase data of 79,417 British households from Kantar Worldpanel, we undertake controlled interrupted time series analysis of the impact of COVID-19 confinement introduced on 23rd March 2020, and variably applied during 2020, compared to purchases during 2015 to 2019 as controls. We also undertook Poisson regression analyses to estimate if changes in purchases differed by household socio-demographic and economic factors. Excess off-trade household alcohol purchases (expressed as grams of ethanol) following the introduction of confinement, were 29.2% higher (95% CI = 25.8% to 32.5%) for the post-confinement months of 2020, being larger until mid-July 2020 (37.5%, 95%CI = 33.9 to 41.26%) when pubs re-opened with restrictions, and smaller (24.6%, 95%CI = 21.6 to 27.7) thereafter. During the time of complete pub closures, and fully adjusting for no on-trade purchases, household purchases of alcohol did not change when compared with the same time period during 2015-2019 (coefficient = -0.9%, 95%CI = -5.6 to 3.8). Excess purchases from 23rd March to 31st December 2020 varied by region of Great Britain, being higher in the north of England, and lower in Scotland and Wales. Excess purchases were greater in the most deprived households, compared with the least deprived households. Excess purchases increased substantially as the amount of alcohol normally purchased by a household increased, with the top one fifth of households that normally bought the most alcohol increasing their purchases more than 17 times than the bottom one fifth of households that bought the least alcohol. That the heaviest buyers of alcohol increased their purchases the most, with some independent impact of socio-economic disadvantage, might explain why reported alcohol problems and recent alcohol-related death rates might have increased. A conclusion of this is that alcohol policy to reduce high consumption of alcohol, and the availability of help and treatment to reduce alcohol consumption become more important during extraordinary times, such as COVID lockdowns.

Role of institutional, cultural and economic factors in the effectiveness of lockdown measures.

OBJECTIVE: This study considered the role of institutional, cultural and economic factors in the effectivemess of lockdown measures during the coronavirus pandemic. Earlier studies focusing on cross-sectional data found an association between low case numbers and a higher level of cultural tightness. Meanwhile, institutional strength and income levels revealed a puzzling negative relationship with the number of cases and deaths. METHODS: Data available at the end of September 2021 were used to analyse the dynamic impact of these factors on the effectiveness of lockdowns. The cross-sectional dimension of country-level data was combined with the time-series dimension of pandemic-related measures, using econometric techniques dealing with panel data. FINDINGS: Greater stringency of lockdown measures was associated with fewer cases. Institutional strength enhanced this negative relationship. Countries with well-defined and established laws performed better for a given set of lockdown measures compared with countries with weaker institutional structures. Cultural tightness reduced the effectiveness of lockdowns, in contrast to previous findings at cross-sectional level. CONCLUSION: Institutional strength plays a greater role than cultural and economic factors in enhancing the performance of lockdowns. These results underline the importance of strengthening institutions for pandemic control.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Depression and Sexual Function: Are Pregnant Women Affected More Adversely?

OBJECTIVE: To investigate depression and sexual function among pregnant and non-pregnant women throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A total of 188 women, 96 pregnant and 92 non-pregnant were included. The Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and the Arizona Sexual Experience Scale (ASEX) were applied to the participants after obtaining sociodemographic data. RESULTS: The depression scores of pregnant and non-pregnant women were similar (p = 0.846). We found that the depression scores were significantly higher among the group of participants who have lower economic status (p = 0.046). Moreover, the depression score was significantly higher among women who lost their income during the pandemic (p = 0.027). The score on the ASEX was significantly higher, and sexual dysfunction was more prevalent among women who have lower levels of schooling and income (p < 0.05). Likewise, the ASEX scores were significantly higher (p = 0.019) among the group who experienced greater income loss throughout the pandemic. Upon comparing the pregnant and non-pregnant groups, we detected that sexual dysfunction had a significantly higher rate among pregnant women (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In times of global crisis, such as the current pandemic, low-income families have an increased risk of experiencing depression and sexual dysfunction. When we compared pregnant women with non-pregnant women, depression scores were similar, but pregnant women were at a 6.2 times higher risk of developing sexual dysfunction.

OBJETIVO: Investigar a depressão e as funções sexuais de mulheres grávidas e não grávidas durante a pandemia de Covid-19. MéTODOS: Um total de 188 mulheres, 96 grávidas e 92 não grávidas, foram incluídas. O Inventário de Depressão de Beck (Beck Depression Inventory, BDI, em inglês) e a Escala de Experiências Sexuais do Arizona (Arizona Sexual Experience Scale, ASEX, em inglês) foram aplicados aos participantes após a obtenção dos dados sociodemográficos. RESULTADOS: As pontuações de depressão de mulheres grávidas e não grávidas foram semelhantes (p = 0,846). Verificou-se que as pontuações de depressão foram significativamente maiores no grupo de participantes de menor nível econômico (p = 0,046). Além disso, a pontuação de depressão foi significativamente maior em mulheres que perderam sua renda durante a pandemia (p = 0,027). A pontuação na ASEX foi significativamente maior, e a disfunção sexual foi mais prevalente em pessoas com menores escolaridade e nível de renda (p < 0,05). Da mesma forma, as pontuações na ASEX foram significativamente mais altas (p = 0,019) no grupo que experimentou maior perda de renda durante a pandemia. Ao comparar os grupos de gestantes e não gestantes, detectou-se que a disfunção sexual apresentava índice significativamente maior entre as gestantes (p <0,001). CONCLUSãO: Em tempos de crise global, como a atual pandemia, famílias de baixa renda têm um risco maior de sofrer depressão e disfunção sexual. Quando comparamos mulheres grávidas e mulheres não grávidas, as pontuações de depressão foram semelhantes, mas as mulheres grávidas apresentaram um risco 6,2 vezes maior de desenvolver disfunção sexual.

Examining socio-economic factors to understand the hospital case fatality rates of COVID-19 in the city of São Paulo, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Understanding differences in hospital case fatality rates (HCFRs) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may help evaluate its severity and the capacity of the healthcare system to reduce mortality. METHODS: We examined the variability in HCFRs of COVID-19 in relation to spatial inequalities in socio-economic factors, hospital health sector and patient medical condition across the city of São Paulo, Brazil. We obtained the standardized hospital case fatality ratio adjusted indirectly by age and sex, which is the ratio between the HCFR of a specific spatial unit and the HCFR for the entire study area. We modelled it using a generalized linear mixed model with spatial random effects in a Bayesian context. RESULTS: We found that HCFRs were higher for men and for individuals ≥60 y of age. Our models identified per capita income as a significant factor that is negatively associated with the HCFRs of COVID-19, even after adjusting for age, sex and presence of risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Spatial analyses of the implementation of these methods and of disparities in COVID-19 outcomes may help in the development of policies for at-risk populations in geographically defined areas.

Identifying Nontraditional Epidemic Disease Risk Factors Associated with Major Health Events from World Health Organization and World Bank Open Data.

Health events emerge from host, community, environment, and pathogen factors-forecasting epidemics is a complex task. We describe an exploratory analysis to identify economic risk factors that could aid epidemic risk assessment. A line list was constructed using the World Health Organization Disease Outbreak News (2016-2018) and economic indicators from the World Bank. Poisson regression employing forward imputations was used to establish relationships with the frequency with which countries reported public health events. Economic indicators demonstrated strong performance appropriate for further assessment in surveillance programming. In our analysis, three economic indicators were significantly associated to event reporting: how much the country's urban population changed, its average forest area, and a novel economic indicator we developed that assessed how much the gross domestic product changed per capita. Other economic indicators performed less well: changes in total, female, urban, and rural population sizes; population density; net migration; change in per cent forest area; total forest area; and another novel indicator, change in percent of trade as a fraction of the total economy. We then undertook a further analysis of the start of the current COVID-19 pandemic that revealed similar associations, but confounding by global disease burden is likely. Continued development of forecasting approaches capturing information relevant to whole-of-society factors (e.g., economic factors as assessed in our study) could improve the risk management process through earlier hazard identification and inform strategic decision processes in multisectoral strategies to preventing, detecting, and responding to pandemic-threat events.